Dual Momentum Investing

by Gary Antonacci

For whatever reason, I've seen more than a few books of late about trend investing. While this one comes up with a bit of a different title, the gist of the strategy that is proposed here is the same: Buy what’s hot and sell what’s not. The author, Gary Antonacci, won an award for a paper that became the heart of this book. He developed a simplified strategy for moving money between three investments based solely on their momentum: the S&P 500 index, All Country World Index, and the ACWI excluding US based stocks. He adds some meat to the bones of this strategy by using not just simple momentum, but what he calls absolute and relative momentum – the “Dual Momentum” of the title. The strategy itself ends up being called the Global Equity Momentum or GEM strategy.

Assuming the author’s supporting charts and data are accurate, there is a good case to be made for this being an effective investment strategy, but I do see some drawbacks. As simple as the strategy is, its execution will take a lot of research and constant monitoring to be sure to know when the hot investment is cooling down and cool investment is heating up. The author suggests a number of ways of doing this, including using a (free) website he has set up. And like most simple investment strategies, this one can be made more complex by taking other investment trends and factors into consideration, such as simple moving averages, P/E ratios, 52-week high proximity, and the like. Personally, think incorporating some of these indices would be a good idea, but I can also see how this would take up a lot of time. Personalization versus time/cost ratios will come down to the individual investor.

The biggest drawback of this book is that the author spends the first half of the book quoting a slew of research papers and economic articles in support of the strategy, including its timing, allocation percentages, and investment types. Only around page 95 of this 150-page book, does he actually introduce the strategy. The buildup to a one page flow chart for implementing and maintaining the strategy is, I thought, a bit extreme, but in all honesty, the strategy is about one of the simplest, and possibly effective, investment strategies I've ever seen.

While I can see giving the dual momentum investing or GEM strategy five dollar marks for simplicity and ingenuity, the book itself, being full of quotes from a 13-page bibliography, is just a little too sluggish to rate that high, so I give the whole package four dollar marks.

Retirement GPS

by Aaron Katsman

Boy, it's been a while. Even so, the holidays have got me tied up, so, I'll just post a short version of a review that I've also put up on Amazon. Enjoy!

I was happy to accept a gratis copy of this book from the author, as I had just finished reading and reviewing You Can Retire Earlier Than You Think and I was interested in finding more information about retirement investing with a mind toward retiring, either early or comfortably or both. I thought the GPS of the title would sort of provide some guidance for determining one’s financial position (right?) as it pertains to retiring. What Mr. Katsman has actually written, however, is more of a generic global investing guide that does not necessarily limit itself to retirement investing. There is no guidance for deciding anything about your ability to retire, but there is still a lot of valuable information in this book.

Mr. Katsman is an American who lives abroad and primarily (only?) invests overseas. The GPS of his book stands for “Global Portfolio System” and is mainly concerned with getting average investors to diversify internationally and consider a number of “normal” investments (mutual funds, bonds, etc.) in countries other than the United States. The author considers this to be a great retirement investing strategy, but I felt it wasn't a retirement strategy so much as an international investing strategy. retiring. The strategies and suggestions are interesting and sound and certainly worth considering from an investment standpoint, but they could be for retirement investing, income investing, growth investing, or just portfolio building outside of retirement funds. I would even argue, that for people who are still investing but have already retired, they might want to avoid some of Mr. Katsman’s strategies, as they involve different sorts of risks such as exchange rate risk, geopolitical instability, and factors that elderly investors are probably better off avoiding entirely. (I certainly can't picture someone like my 74 year old retired parents trying to buy Argentinean bonds or Chinese renminbi mutual funds or the like. 

To his credit, Mr. Katsman applies his vast overseas investing experience and shares a lot of the nuts and bolts of such investing in this book. The overall tone of the book is friendly and chatty, which is good for the most part, but some of his personal anecdotes need considerable stretching to tie into his discussion of investments. This book is still very readable and comprehensible. I learned a lot about a wide range of subjects, from the Chinese stock market, to the intricacies of European bonds, to exchange rates, and of course, the economic strengths and weaknesses of a large number of overseas economies. The world is a big place, however, so anyone who agrees with Mr. Katsman better be prepared to do a lot of their own research beyond this book, not only on the instruments they plan to purchase, but also the nature of the markets and country where those instruments are being sold. (I haven’t got the stomach for it, myself.)

All in all, this is a well-written, detailed, well-informed book on international investing. The global portfolio system is a neatly developed concept and strategy that is useful for retirement and long term investing, with possible applications to short term investing and out-and-out speculation. Mr. Katsman’s strategy alone rates four dollar signs, and with the lucid execution of this book to explain it, I think the overall package rates four dollar signs as well.

You Can Retire Sooner Than You Think

by Wes Moss

I've read a lot of financial, business and economics books over the years. As I've gotten closer and closer to retirement age, I've paid more and more attention to portfolio protecting strategies as well as books and advice related directly to the actual retirement process. Now in my early 50’s, I’m looking realistically at the prospect of early retirement, possibly in as few as two or three years, so naturally, I've been studying up on the brass tacks of preparing and executing a retirement strategy. For that reason, I didn't think I would find much useful information in Wes Moss’s book that I hadn't already taken into account in my own planning and actions.

I was right, but I was wrong.

Mr. Moss is a syndicated talk show host and certified financial planner of some standing and recognition. He took it upon himself to conduct a survey of retirees in an effort to quantify happiness and determine exactly what makes retirees happy. Of course, he suspected that the amount of retirement assets would play into it, but to his credit, he let the data dictate the answer. What he found was not only illuminating, it is incredibly instructive.

This book is his attempt to relay the findings of a survey he conducted in an effort to identify and quantify the elements of a “happy” retirement. He succeeded in filtering those elements down into five simple “secrets” to achieve a happy, fulfilling retirement. The good news is, some of the secrets are not so secret and in fact, I have already taken some of them into consideration and acted on them. Things like, developing multiple streams of income, driving a sensible and affordable car, staying healthy and active, and pursuing a motivational interest. For me, this is common sense, but I think it will be a revelation for a lot of folks in my age bracket. So I was right in that, some of this book was (for me) preaching to the choir. And you might think that makes it not terribly useful, but I found it vaguely uplifting to have my ideas vindicated by a disinterested third party (so to speak). I was wrong, though, because Mr. Moss has allowed his clients (the survey takers) to also provide better perspective and concrete facts in support of what makes a retiree happy (or unhappy).

What I was wrong about was, Mr. Moss’s clients (the survey takers) provide different perspectives and concrete experiences to back Mr. Moss’s ideas, and that’s where what makes this book different makes it better. There are no investment strategies, per se, in this book. Mr. Moss is more along the lines of offering advice like: pay the mortgage off fast, become active in your community, and pay for the big stuff (house repairs and remodels, once-in-a-lifetime vacations, etc.) before you retire and while you have an income, to avoid unforeseen circumstances derailing your entire retirement. How you go about doing that is up to you. It’s a defensive strategy, but one that has proven effective for a remarkable number of happy retirees. Again, I’m already on board (just purchased a grand piano for my second career as a jazz pianist, thank you very much), and I’m looking forward to having a happy retirement because of it.

This is not a mainstream book about retirement. For portfolio building and tax avoidance strategies, you’ll have to look elsewhere. But for a sensible approach to enjoying your life in retirement, I don’t think a better book has been written. It’s different and better, and that’s what makes this book worth every bit of five dollar marks.

Money

by Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames

Steve Forbes has a way of polarizing people, and although I’m sure he’s going to continue doing that with his latest book, Money, co-written with longtime collaborator Elizabeth Ames, I'm still a big fan of Mr. Forbes. This book did not disappoint me. Mr. Forbes discusses what money is, what money is used for, what it should be used for, and why it causes the many issues (I hesitate to say “problems”) that he thinks it does. Sure, there are more than a few political vents and rants in this slim, easy to read book, but for the most part he keeps to the book's main tenet: fiat money adversely impacts the economic health of any country who uses it. And the solution? The United States should return to the gold standard, along with the rest of the world, and then the issues related to fiat money go away. That’s the long and short of it. 

I must admit, though, that I'm not sure things were so much better when we were on the gold standard. It’s not like there wasn't inflation. Yes things are more expensive now than they were in, say, 1955, but in 1955, the average American only made $5000 a year or so. I could look up the current average salary, but we know it’s a lot higher than $5K. I think Mr. Forbes is on the right track in thinking that the gold standard would solve some of the money issues America faces right now. At the least, it would keep the Fed from printing money at leisure to advance whatever agenda it sees fit at any given moment. But my own feeling is the issues are more complex than just “The Fed shouldn't do this, Congress should do that, and money should be able to be exchange for gold”. Thankfully, Mr. Forbes recognizes that his “simple” suggestion of a return to the gold standard is but a remote possibility at best, so in the final chapter, he provides the reader with a “the best offense is a good defense” strategy to protect one’s own money from the steady devaluation caused by not being on the gold standard. The suggestions are tame (buy index funds, own some gold, stay in the market for the long term) but at least they are realistic. The inclusion of an investment strategy is a bit gratuitous, but I think it is more likely to help rather than hinder the majority of this book’s readers.

Money for the most part is sensible and sober, and Mr. Forbes has no shortage of clever  ideas and strong opinions. Some readers may balk at some of his bolder political statements and finger pointing, but given a high profile author like Mr. Forbes, it’s easy enough to let him have his say and turn the page. In any event, I don’t think he’s going to succeed in resolving anything with this book, and I’m sure most politicians will pointedly ignore it. For me, it didn't make me any bigger of a fan, but it didn't disappoint me either. This was an interesting, thought provoking book, and I'm glad I read it.

Understanding Options and How You Can Trade Like A Pro

by Michael Sincere

by Sarah Potter

I’m reviewing these two books together because they cover a lot of the same material. Obviously, Sarah Potter’s book, Trade Like A Pro is a lot broader and focuses mainly on trading strategies, analysis, methodologies, charts, graphs, and the nitty gritty details of making regular, and hopefully profitable, trades. Michael Sincere, on the other hand, in his book focuses only on options: what they are, how they work, and how to use them to broaden one’s investment strategy. Although options are certainly a speculator’s game, they also have a role in the average investor’s portfolio, whereas everything in Trade Like a Pro is geared to the person who is going to do just that: trade.

I found Mr. Sincere’s book much more up my alley, both from the aspect of the types of trades and the prices of the examples he uses, to the step by step walk through of a typical (and not so typical) options trade. Ms. Potter, on the other hand, assumes you know a lot and are ready for some advanced topics and analysis, and she also assumes you have a large war chest to start with. (For example, Mr. Sincere’s typical options sample trade uses Boeing at $88, while Ms. Potter uses Mastercard at $550. Does it matter in the end? Not really, but I know that $50K trades in options are nowhere in my near future, whereas $9K probably is.) I've been buying and selling equities for 28 years but had never ventured into options. After reading Understanding Options, I opened my options account and made my first trade. It really was as simple as reading the book, following the instructions, and executing the trade. As for Trade Like a Pro, I gained valuable insight into trend analysis and found remarkably similar approaches in simple moving average usage that is close to what I already do (and have been doing for years).

Really, I think reading these books together is a good approach, as they have similarities and differences in investment strategies that allow the reader to creatively think about their own investments (or in some cases, gambles). I rate Mr. Sincere’s book slightly higher because it is much easier to read and understand and for his laser focus on this one topic, but that is not to say it is better than Ms. Potter’s, whose book is full of useful ideas, suggestions and strategies. In the end, reading one or both of these books is sure to help most anyone who invests or speculates regularly in equities markets.

Stocks for the Long Run

by Jeremy Siegel

The fifth edition of Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run, features great updates written in light of recent economic events, i.e. important stuff that happened long after the publication of this book. That is why after 20 years, it remains required reading for stock investors of all ilks, and its value continues to grow through the years. With Mr. Siegel’s penchant for being a scholar and purveyor of insight and current knowledge, he expertly extends his previous work to cover the real estate implosion, the 2008 depression, the post-depression recovery, and the Fed’s tight money policy and quantitative easing. Everything that the press and TV financial gurus have worked so hard to obfuscate over the last six years suddenly becomes lucid and, if not sensible, at least explainable.

Of course, the majority of the book is the original classic, where Mr. Siegel displays considerable acumen and gobs of statistics and applies them to markets and investments. Although this is my first time reading this book, I’ve had some exposure over the years to Mr. Siegel’s writing in economic magazines and newspapers. He is always one of the most lucid financial pundits around, a skill that was obviously honed in the writing (and rewriting) of this book over the last two decades. He uses clear examples, easy to understand graphs and tables, and an overall “no nonsense” tone that keeps the book light but “sturdy”. And instead of telling potential investors what they should do, he tells you what to expect when it comes to markets, individual stocks, and particular sectors, how to recognize what they are doing, and what you might want to consider doing to take advantage of that. If none of that suits you, all you have to do is skip to the next chapter, where he will give you different insight into a different investment aspect. Mr. Siegel covers everything stocks, so someone looking for detailed information can read individual sections to their taste, while someone looking for a thorough overview can just go through the book, cover to cover.

This is one of the best books ever written on investing in stocks, a book that other pros, authors, and analysts keep on their shelf for a ready reference. If you’re serious about investing in stocks, you need to keep a copy of this five dollar-sign book on your shelf as well.